Sony Kumar's BLOG

The World in 2024: A Snapshot for a 16-Year-Old in 2050 

Dear Friend,

As you navigate your future in 2050, I thought I would write a note to remind you of the lessons of the past and the importance of innovation, cooperation, and sustainability in shaping a better world for future generations.

From where I am sitting today, in December of 2024, I would summarise the world as a complex tapestry of economic, political, and social dynamics. And I hope that as you read this in 2050, you will find it fascinating to look back and see how far we’ve come and how much has changed. 

Perhaps you will find hope by looking back in history.

Global Economy 

The global economy’s architecture has been flawed since its inception. Over time it has become increasingly complex, and hardly anyone understands it well. Many including myself think that it is no longer fit for purpose.

In 2024 was marked by a mix of recovery and uncertainty. The world was still grappling with the aftershocks of the COVID-19 pandemic, which had significantly disrupted economies worldwide. Many countries were in the process of rebuilding and adapting to new economic realities. Inflation was a major concern, with central banks around the world adjusting interest rates to manage rising prices. Technological advancements continued to drive economic growth, with sectors like artificial intelligence, renewable energy, and biotechnology leading the way.

The global economy faces several significant challenges that make it difficult for many people to thrive. Here I have tried to highlight some key issues:

1. Rising Inequality: Economic growth has not been evenly distributed, leading to a widening gap between the rich and the poor. Many people are left behind, struggling with low wages and limited access to opportunities. Which has fuelled the rise of anti-immigration hysteria across many parts of the world especially Europe and the US.

• Geopolitical Tensions: Conflicts and political instability in key regions disrupted global supply chains and created economic uncertainty. This has led to higher prices and reduced economic growth. Geopolitically, 2024 was a year of significant tension and realignment. The United States and China were the two dominant superpowers, often at odds over trade, technology, and military influence. The European Union was navigating its challenges, including economic disparities among member states and the ongoing impact of Brexit. In the Middle East, conflicts and political instability persisted, and tens of thousands needlessly died.

• Climate Change: Environmental degradation and climate-related disasters are increasingly impacting economies. These events have destroyed infrastructure, reduced agricultural productivity, and displaced communities. Climate change was one of the most pressing issues of 2024. The world was experiencing more frequent and severe weather events, from hurricanes and wildfires to droughts and floods. And I do wonder what the world will be like in 2050.

• Technological Disruption: While technology can drive economic growth, it also displaces jobs and can exacerbate inequality. Many workers find it challenging to adapt to new technologies and may struggle to find new employment. AI has already disrupted many industries. According to some reports, up to 300 million jobs in the United States and Europe could be affected by AI, either through job loss or job transformation. The overall impact of AI on employment will depend on how well societies manage the transition. Ensuring that workers have the skills needed for the jobs of the future is crucial.

• Misinformation and Disinformation: The spread of false information has been quite disrupting, which has eroded trust in institutions, making it harder for governments to function effectively.

• Globalization and Trade Issues: While globalization has brought many benefits, it has also led to job losses in certain sectors and increased competition. Some countries and communities struggle to compete in the global market

These factors contributed to a complex and often unstable global economic environment, making it difficult for many people to achieve economic security and prosperity. Most of our ideas have outlived their original design and are therefore struggling. Our democracies do not work, and the financial markets have increasingly become disconnected from society at large. A very small group of people now control a very large percentage of global wealth, and the global debt pile is reaching unsustainable levels as of the end of 2024, the global debt has reached a staggering $307 trillion. The U.S. alone accounts for about 34.6% of the world’s total government debt, paying around $1.18 trillion annually just in interest on its debt.

So, I don’t know what the future holds as predicting the future of the global economy involves considering various trends, projections and variables.

But here is my attempt to project what the global economy might look like in 2050:

1. Shift in Economic Power:  I do expect the balance of global economic power to shift significantly towards Asia. Countries like China and India are projected to be major economic powerhouses, with Asia potentially contributing around 45% of global GDP.
2. Technological Advancements: Continued advancements in technology, particularly in AI and automation, will drive productivity and economic growth. This could lead to significant changes in various industries and job markets as well as the society at large.
3. Global Economic Growth: The global economy could more than double in size by 2050, outstripping population growth due to continued technology-driven productivity improvements.
4. Emerging Markets: Emerging markets, especially the E7 (China, India, Brazil, Mexico, Russia, Indonesia, and Turkiye), are expected to grow faster than advanced economies. This growth will be driven by factors such as population growth (China will be an exception), urbanization, and technological adoption.
5. Global Population Growth: I do have genuine concern about the declining population in the advanced economies.
6. A genuine risk of large-scale civil disobedience movement: If the status quo were to continue then, I do think there is a serious risk of large-scale disruption of global society.

Climate change could cause approximately 300,000 additional deaths per year between 2030 and 2050 due to malnutrition, malaria, diarrhoea, and heat stress. This estimate highlights the severe health risks posed by climate change, but the actual number could be higher if climate change accelerates or if mitigation efforts are insufficient. Extreme weather events like heatwaves, floods, and storms are likely to increase in frequency and intensity, leading to higher mortality rates, particularly in vulnerable regions.

My dear friend, I wonder if looking back from 2050, you would conclude that 2024 was a pivotal year in many ways. The challenges and opportunities of our time did set the stage for the world you know today in 2050. Perhaps, you think of us with disgust and are unable to fathom how did we screw this up for your generation, and if we have then I submit my deepest apologies. I would like to think that the resilience and adaptability of people and societies in 2024 laid the groundwork for the advancements and progress that have been made in the decades since. As you navigate your own future, please do remember the lessons of the past and the importance of making decisions knowing well that sooner or later individual’s decision will have an impact on the larger society. It is by innovation, cooperation, and sustainability that we can shape a better world.