When talking about the Indian economy, are we missing the big picture ?

Posted on September 24, 2017. Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , |

So the new government got into the office on the back of a pitch that was based on a lot of hope and promises, and while I have been personally quite supportive of the need for change. I have never been in any doubt that, the changes will require time and government will have to let down people. In a country like or anywhere else for that matter, a government gets elected mostly on perception built around the hype. Average people are simply unable to breakthrough each policies and make sense of it. A country like India needs a complete overhaul of its existing economic and financial infrastructure , and that requires a lot of re-wiring and also redesigning of the entire system. Any good reforms takes time, and a prudent policy is always, to not overload the system with Big Bang reforms, one after the other, the changes have to be incremental, but constant. A system overhaul takes time, and you can’t expect the system to start firing on all cylinders right away especially when you are creating more capacity in the old system.

But economic policies alone can’t re-wire the system, it also requires better execution. And if we are talking about creating growth then, there should be a realisation that, without the ability of funding, government policies on their own aren’t the magic fix. So I don’t care what economic policies the government can come up with, driving growth in a country like India , where almost 80- 90% financing is sourced from banks simply isn’t going to work, unless and until the banks are back in shape. The fact is, the bad loans problem hasn’t been fixed, and the lenders have been too slow to offload the garbage sitting in their living room, yes there are legislative policy changes and reforms to help the banks, but banks haven’t been proactive enough. And a lot has to do with the existing training as well as mindset of the executives within the current banking system. For example, based on my own experience, I have realised that a sizeable percentage of the senior bank executives in India aren’t willing to make tough decisions, because for them, as I understood it, it’s all about a peaceful retirement and self preservation. And the investigative agencies haven’t helped decision making process either. Also some of the rule changes don’t really help the banks clean up their balance sheet. The asset reconstruction companies or ARC as they are known in India are, like a time bomb waiting to explode . On practicality basis, there is almost zero value in the ARC structure.

Without recycling the rubbish, you can’t get rid of the stinky garbage, and monetise it. Many quality ideas are simply not getting funded in India, and young entrepreneurs who could drive growth are more or less shut out from funding. And the other real issue is that, like European banks, the Indian banks are also now scared to lend. The ex RBI governor did good talking and provided public opinion on almost everything, but failed to provide real solutions, and now he is busy promoting a book.

I would prefer a wholesale reform of the financial infrastructure of the Indian economy, where capital market becomes the largest source of capital and not the banks. The regulators also need to support the government by unburdening the system from socialistic era policies. Also the government needs to do more work and talk less, there is too much distraction. A lot of announcement, but not much is getting done. Media channels have an endless lineup of experts, who probably wake up everyday, ready to provide new round of expert opinion. And the quality of journalism is rubbish, where is a decent discussion on, what reforms need to be brought in, to help the nation grow? The issue is everyone is drinking from the same source, whether you are the federal or state government, central or state government owned companies, or the private sector. And unless there is new liquidity going into the banks, it’s going to be tough to fund growth.

Various state governments across India are struggling with a very bloated fiscal situation, and they also own companies that have not made money for a long period of time, so it doesn’t make any good business sense for these states, to continue to own unprofitable companies. And in most cases, these companies are competing with other unprofitable or distressed state owned companies across India. These companies were set up in various states across the country, to provide services to the citizens, and by design they were probably never pushed to make a profit. But the time has come for states across the country to find an exit, by either privatising the companies or merging them together with similar companies in other states, and then exiting it. This will also reduce the debt burden on the states.

Also to fund growth, I will encourage the government of India to put in $ 3 billion in equity and then raise additional $ 7 billion from local banks as well as international investors/ banks, to create a growth and investment fund. This fund could also be made tax exempt from withholding taxes for foreign investors, and let this fund buy new loans from the banks, the fund could then repackage the loans in an asset backed security ( ABS) as a way to refinance itself. The fund could also provide working capital loan indirectly to the SMEs through the banks, and let the originator banks hold just 10% of the new loan on their books. RBI could also buy some of these securities from the secondary market to improve the liquidity and pricing. Also Emerging market focused fixed income investors could buy into these securities, and will be exempt from any withholding taxes. I am not a great fan of using pure debt to finance infrastructure, I would rather first raise equity to fund the infrastructure, and then give equity investors an exit by issuing the debt. If you look at it from pure risk perspective, the equity investors are in fact protected from the completion of the underlying asset, and that’s why you need a strong construction company to provide completion and construction risk coverage. So once the asset is built, equity investors will have their value protected, and the return will come from issuing the debt at a premium. There is a natural cycle, and any insurance cover to protect your investment in infrastructure asset will not work, if you simply buy a credit protection. I prefer a equity – debt- equity – exit cycle , which is based on water cycle of cloud – liquid water- ice – water – cloud. That’s the best value preservation model.

The idea that you can protect your asset for its entire life cycle carrying just debt is completely absurd, and it simply doesn’t work, any debt, if not managed well tends to have the natural tendency to end up spiralling into an unsustainable burden. And, if there was no refinancing then, most debt will not be repaid. You can repay debt from cash flow, but refinancing still remains the most frequently used tool. So we need to link the cycle especially for infrastructure assets. The issue with an infrastructure asset also is the permanent loss of value, and this is when the asset becomes redundant for a number of reasons, but if as an investor, you haven’t recovered money during the cash flow generation lifespan or lifecycle of the asset then, you are looking at a permanent loss of capital.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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The Changing GAME, and the Global economy

Posted on December 6, 2014. Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |

The recent movements in the markets and its overall behaviour is starting to indicate that the game is changing and has already changed somewhat, and the market participants are having to adapt to these changes rather quickly. And here is an example, so when my GrandMa suggested that never mind the good old correlation theory, the markets overall behaviour today has changed so we could very well see the stock going higher while the crude oil could go as low as 70 or even lower,some folks in the market thought, it hasn’t happened before, and probably won’t now because crude and stock pricing have had historical correlation. And that’s a very understandable observation. But in the past month, the stocks have clearly been on an upward trajectory while the crude has continued to be on a downward trend. And by relying on the old economic theory as a reference, some may argue that one of these stories might be not be true, but I would disagree with that old economic assumption that one of these stories must be lying. Not at all, it’s just that people have evolved, and some of the old rules don’t work that well in the markets today. And here is an attempt to explain both the stories.

The stocks have been supported by a number of factors. For example, the European Central Bank ( ECB ) has just started its quantitative easing ( QE ) program, and the Bank of Japan ( BOJ ) as well as the Bank of England (BOE) are still maintaining the level of their QE program, also there are no real indication that the FED or any another central bank for that matter in the developed world  is going to start raising rates around Q1 of 2015, it’s simply too risky. And although at some point, the FED and BOE might have to raise rates in 2015 , the central banks in China and India will most likely be lowering their rates, and PBOC ( the Chinese Central bank ) has already started the process so clearly the game is being played differently around different parts of the world today.

And with regards to the downward trajectory of the current crude pricing, it  isn’t all a reflection of a seriously deteriorating global macro economic condition. In fact the recent policy easing in China as well as the Euro 315 billion investment & growth plan announced by the European Union along with the quantitative easing (QE) plan of the European Central Bank is all aimed at creating  growth so the under normal circumstances, the markets should push the crude prices up but the underlying reasons for a falling crude isn’t all based on global macro issues. There are number of other factors at play, and one of them is that the US marching on to becoming a net exporter of energy, and OPEC mainly lead by Saudis are trying their best to maintain their position in the game by making the shale gas business unsustainable. It’s hard to project, if OPEC and the Saudis will eventually succeed but the game has obviously changed, and the old rules don’t really apply.

The other interesting thing happening today is the positive momentum build up over India. And if India is able to find a way to unleash its potential then quite frankly, the global economy will be better for it. But the Indian economy has to deal with a series structural issues, and inflation being one of them.I believe, the current RBI governor needs to sit down with the government, and help device a plan to carry out wholesale structural reforms in the economy. Monetary policy has its limitations, just look across the world, the central bankers aren’t really able to get a good handle on inflation anymore because as stated before, the game has changed. And we need to look at the  bigger context when talking about inflation today.

For example, the financial assets in the U.S. as well as other developed markets got highly inflated, but without a real increase in disposable income, there is simply no capacity in the real economy to drive up inflation in the developed world. And specifically in context of India, India’s inflation is hard wired into how the country’s economy is structured, and unless the economy is unclogged, taming the inflation isn’t going to work. So practically, it’s almost impossible for India to export its inflation overseas, a process through which the developed world including of the U.S. was able to to export its inflation to an economy like China while continuing to grow and keep a relatively high living standard. The RBI governor has done an extremely good job so far, and I believe , he along with other central bankers know the limitations of monetary policy tools. Also Indian economy isn’t efficient enough structurally to quickly respond to policy changes, and this is thanks to the old ways of doing things. So an incremental reform agenda aimed at unclogging the engine has to be at the forefront. Inflation will tame down going forward with the structural reforms in the economy and also the existing lower fuel prices etc, but without carrying out a thorough structural reform, any slow down in inflation can’t be sustained.  I believe, the current governor of the RBI shouldn’t hesitate to use inflation as a leverage to keep the pressure on the finance minister to keep the reform agenda at forefront. And in Mr Rajan as the governor of India’s central bank, India has found a central banker who has a global reputation, also a central banker who isn’t shy of a debate. And this is why he gets respect in the market.

Overall, it looks like India is heading in the right direction. A country like India needed a strong government, and most importantly a strong leader. And on both these counts, the people of India have delivered, but India is a federal structure so if the states don’t participate in the growth and prosperity agenda of the federal government then it will be a struggle for the central leadership on their own to take the country forward. There is an overall positive sentiment around India today, and the country does have an immense potential. And the way, I would describe India’s potential is, if for example, the economic model followed by China has helped it create a Boeing 777 then India today has the chance to create Boeing a 777 X series plane, an upgraded version that will be largest and most efficient twine engine plane in the world, but for this to happen a lot has to go right for India.

Progress and reform has to be incremental, and also gradual. A steady take off requires the pilot to guide the plane making sure the climb is comfortable, and will not put the passengers as well as the plane at risk. And once the plane is flying at the desired altitude, a seasoned pilot as well as a passenger know that there will always be turbulence on the way. So the approach by the INDIAN  leadership shouldn’t be based around trying to blast off the country into outer space by carrying out one time wholesale Big Bang reforms. No progress or reform is permanent so the leadership and the policymakers should factor in a period of consolidation in the economy, and be always prepared to carry out the next set of reforms.

Also any well thought policy reform will fail to deliver the desired result, if the policy delivery mechanism isn’t fit for purpose. The current economic infrastructure of the economy is old and too  clogged up so the focus of the government should be to take immediate measures to unclog the system, and then the growth will start to trickle through. The road ahead won’t be a smooth ride but the focus should be on unclogging the system and changing the current administrative policy delivering mechanism set up in the country. Also, the rural India will need to be fully plugged into the overall progress agenda. This will create,and is already creating tremendous opportunities for entrepreneurs who are able to spot them. The strategy has to be tailored to make sure all parts of the economy is starting to perform efficiently, and won’t burden the ascend of the overall economy going forward.

Also most importantly a ” progress for all ” idea has to be sold to the entire nation, and by trying to make this into a national movement, the current PM of India is heading in the right direction. However, the people of the country will need to be willing participants by making their own contributions. So the leadership of the country should aim to pitch India as a potential B777 X, the latest and more powerful as well as more efficient version of the existing B777, and India can be that.

The government will need to discover an economic growth model that is sustainable over a long term period and also inclusive. Adopting and following an existing growth model will not work for a country like India, and this is why I always struggle to understand the idea proposed by some in the market that all emerging economies should follow the economic growth model of China as an example for their country without really understanding if that specific economic model is going to be sustainable for their respective economies.

China’s heavy reliance on investments to drive it’s GDP has created a massive over supply, and there are large amount of infrastructure assets that are simply sitting idle without creating any return for the tax payers so if we were to look in terms of return on investment basis then the picture is quite murky. In short they would fall under inefficient investments category, and we are talking about trillions of dollars worth of such investments here. And this is one of the reason why the leadership of China based companies are looking to invest overseas, and it makes good business sense because the companies in China do have tremendous experience in building substantial infrastructure assets.

So going forward, the state owned enterprise in China will look to invest overseas as there isn’t much to do at home, and in a way, this strategy works out well because the emerging economies that have massive infrastructure deficit might find that China based companies are more willing and flexible to help them develop and finance those projects than others. And as Europe and the U.S. gets more competitive, the foreign players currently operating in China will start to move their production facility closer to home, and it’s already happening as the cost of production is starting to get lower than that in China. The economic engine of China is going through a gear change, and the leadership will need to make sure the transition is well managed. And as the game continues to change, companies operating in the real economy will face different type of challenges but at the same time there will be many opportunities, and that’s just a natural process, the powerhouse of yesteryears will become irrelevant as the economy evolves.

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Talking About The All Scary Emerging Market, Market Perception and Investing in General

Posted on January 26, 2014. Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |

The markets are once again busy with chatter about Emerging Market ( EM ) and the sound of CHOAS seems to be re-emerging and many in the market are starting to wonder, what’s next ? A number of analysts have gone on record suggesting in their daily market commentary that emerging markets could now be a danger to global financial stability. No doubt, these are strong statements so it begs the obvious question, are we looking at another financial crisis, this time coming from the emerging markets ? And I do wonder if the fundamentals of EM have changed so dramatically leading some commentators to believe that a crisis is somehow imminent as evident from the way markets have reacted last week? Well, unlike our friends in the financial world, we ( I am referring to our group ) like many others who operate on a daily basis in the real economy can see and feel that the global economy is shaping up nicely and the IMF’s latest revised up global growth projection of 3.7% for 2014 and it’s growth expectation of around 5.1% for emerging markets from an earlier 4.7% GDP growth rate guidance, more or less reflects the ground the reality of the day.  So the obvious question, why this panic and uncertainty ?

Now one could rightly argue that the revised up guidance are just projections and the risks both known and unknown still remains. Also the recent volatility in the markets to a large extent has been driven by downward pressure on the Turkish LIRA as well as Argentine PESOS devaluation and the South African RAND, which is also come under a bit of pressure. And then there are obvious chatters around how good or bad China is doing and how will the leadership manage the US 4.8 trillion dollar worth ( estimated ) shadow banking system along with a relatively high local government debts, and then there are concerns about India as well as Brazil’s fundamentals. These are real and genuine concerns but having said that, I can’t help but wonder, how is all this a SURPRISE to anyone in the market ? For example most of us are aware of the ongoing political uncertainty in Turkey and based on our own common sense, we could safely conclude that if the political turmoil drags on then there will be consequences to the economy.

And also assuming the worst case scenario, one needs to ask and know, did the previous crises in Turkish and Argentine economy kill the overall emerging markets across the board ? the clear answer is NO, so in short it will be unwise to assume that Turkey will some how bring down the emerging markets of Asia, Africa or Latin America, the reality is a potential crisis in Turkey may be more damaging to developed European economies then China or India for that matter. Also it is important to emphasise that there is a crisis of leadership in Turkey today which is weighing down on the economy and a positive resolution could very easily change the overall dynamics of the economy. Now with regards to China, a US 9.4 trillion dollar economy growing at around 7.7% isn’t just going to fall off the cliff under the weight of its shadow banking system and the local government debt. Yes, there are real concerns about how the government may go about handling the whole situation but it will be unwise to assume that somehow the economy will implode bringing down the global economy. There are simply too many opinions on China both bearish and bullish but understanding the structure and behaviour of the overall Chinese economy is an extremely complex task and betting against the government’s ability to deliver on its set forth agenda never really works and this may be one of the reasons why foreign investors tend to struggle in China. And with regards to India, the Indian economy today is in a much better shape fundamentally than last year also the overall investors sentiment around India has improved significantly, the country’s real problem today is a lack of decisive leadership which will hopefully get resolved after the upcoming general election and also most CEOs representing both local and overseas companies are quite upbeat about India’s medium and long term growth prospect. The current government has also made a series of reform announcements aimed at opening up various parts of the economy to overseas investors.

So why then the market is projecting a risk of contagion and giving a sense that somehow an imminent crisis is brewing up in the Emerging market ? I must say, I do wonder if by holding an emerging market stock or bonds or taking up speculative positions in local currency an overseas investor is ever able to get the full picture and flavour of the overall economy ? And the answer is, most likely not because in reality most emerging markets are layered and quite different to each other and also it must be said that there is a reason why they come under the category of being classified as ” emerging markets ” but this is not to say that developed markets are somehow immune to crisis as evident from the financial crisis of 07/08.

In the big picture scenario understanding a market or an asset class isn’t just about reading opinions from various experts of the subject and one must not forget that even in good times people and companies do fail so yes some emerging markets may struggle but today the global economy is in a much better shape than it was few years ago and it is quite unlikely that from here on we are looking at an imminent collapse. However, the inherent risk in the global economic system as well as the financial markets by design still remains so the system isn’t CRISIS proof and never was. Also opinions and projections are part and parcel of how a markets operate but people do need to be rationale and honest because clearly there are those in the market who may prefer a free ride and to keep making  money on the back of easy money printed by the central bankers. This is not to suggest that the global economy has now reached a stage when all the loose monetary policy stimulus should be withdrawn right away, the tapering and tightening of traditional monetary policy tools will most likely be gradual.

But having said that the market will continue to make tapering related bets. Vanguard, PIMCO and BLACKROCK  lost roughly over 35% in value on their investment  in the last 6 months of 2013 by getting their inflation bet wrong on Treasury Inflation Protection Securities (TIPS ). These firms made bets on the assumption that Quantitative easing (QE ) will deliver inflation down the road and although it is quite evident that they got their bet wrong but we mustn’t  forget the fact that QE did in fact create Inflation in ASSET PRICING and also across various Emerging Markets, but obviously not where it was expected so clearly those who held a view that QE will create inflationary mayhem in the economy killing  the dollar down road most likely didn’t incorporate the fact that the economy of today works and behaves a bit differently. There  needs to be a realisation that too much money in the system and ultra lose monetary policy will not necessarily create an immediate spectacular growth trajectory especially when the economy is coming out of a MASSIVE HEART ATTACK. And there are clear evidence that QE has created ASSET pricing inflation through misallocation of capital and this may be what is eating up growth ( growth rate below market expectation ). Also while some managers did get their inflationary bet wrong they should also realise that central bank’s ability to create or control inflation in a 2014 world isn’t always guaranteed or straight forward but having said that inflation will slowly but surely show up in the real economy but most probably not tomorrow.

Investment is about taking risk by relying your own assessment of a specific risk and then taking a decision based on your own judgement. MARKETS OR COMPANIES are all run by Human ideas and thought process so the market or a company is only as good as people behind them. And without being philosophical, we all know that life comes with no guarantee so what do we do? well, we learn to take risks and the same goes for creating a business and how we invest. There are no guarantees and the guarantees you may have or seek could easily become worthless when the circumstances change. And whatever investment decision you make or take will always come with an inherent RISK so there is always a chance that it may or may not work out as planned. You can only make a decision based on what you can see and know today but there are always many unknowns that you may not be able to factor in and going forward  these unknowns may very well influence the outcome.

So investing in general isn’t all about following a trend or analysts reports or getting overwhelmed by the sound bites coming from various corners of the market or committing yourself to a fancy model. In most cases, a good investment is generally about following your own intuition or in other words your own inner radar just like many decisions we make or take in our lives and you can always use the information available in the market to make up your own mind in a similar way as you would seek advice from friends or family when taking an important decision in your life but always remember you will have to live with outcome and blaming others for an undesired outcome never helps although it might be quite tempting to play the game but if you do then you are denying yourself an IMPORTANT OPPORTUNITY TO LEARN and there is nothing scary about learning. So the all scary emerging market as projected by some in the market today in fact may not be that scary after all and remember a perception doesn’t always equal reality.

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A Historic Opportunity For India and the Indian society To Bring About a Change From Within

Posted on January 7, 2014. Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |

 

Good to see the ongoing debate on governance, politics and reforming of the INDIAN TAX SYSTEM stirring up in India in the past few weeks. But by looking at the BIG PICTURE it’s clear that country isn’t just struggling cause of lack of good governance and good governance although essential but on its own won’t go far enough to move the country forward. It is quite evident that the country has been suffering from a severe lack of good reforms and efficient policy decisions but the again a good policy or much needed reforms can only be executed or delivered by an efficient delivery mechanism.And so far this has been India’s major problem because the existing administrative system is simply not fit for purpose. The reality is that a high percentage of the administrators(managers) coming out of the current Indian Administrative Services (IAS) program do not have the right training or the essential background on public policy administration and execution.

A good an innovative policy requires an efficient administrative infrastructure that is not just able to cope with the task at hand but also able to improvise by working closely with the relevant ministerial department on perfecting the policies if and when required. It should also be extremely reactive and responsive to its users / customers i.e. the citizens requirements. The administrative infrastructure created during the British Raj to govern India clearly needs to be revamped and updated. For example we can’t expect to run super fast trains on British Raj Era railway infrastructure without revamping and updating the existing railway infrastructure of the country and this is just common sense. So in short the existing policy delivery mechanism / infrastructure is quite simply outdated. And the problem is not that there is a shortage of talents when it comes to good public administrators but the system simply fails to keep the talent because it isn’t attractive enough. Historically India has produced amazing MINDS and even today the country has no shortage of Talents but the problem has always been the mindset of the Indian society.

Any good system requires a regular overhaul and upgrading and the current IAS program that more or less serves as an operating system to administer and govern INDIA is simply too old and is in need of immediate radical reforms to make it fit for purpose. And here is what the government of the day should look at, a good manager will need to be paid appropriately so what’s the harm in creating a private sector type bonus system linked to verifiable results and overall performance of an official. And the same should apply to ministers. The ministers and the managerial staff will need to work on making various administrative branches of INDIA INC more efficient and responsive and deliver better return on assets for the shareholders i.e. the citizens.

Corruption won’t go away on its own or by street protests or by a creation of new political parties. Also elections and governance etc won’t necessarily solve India’s problem in my own view. If you think the same way you will get to the same place so clearly the country needs to start the process of revamping it’s overall mindset and find a new approach. And this has to come and be driven by the society itself. So a lasting and sustainable change has to come from within. For example lets start with small things if people living in the same community decided to work together and started keeping their streets and town cleans then automatically the entire city will start to look and feel cleaner. Similarly, if people decided and encouraged their friends and families to look at the bigger picture and not to take short cuts for example when getting their kids admitted to a school or getting a normal job done or even when attending prayer events in temples the society will then start to look less messier and more organised as there will be less incentives for folks to ask for favours. It is important to understand that a vibrant bribe culture in India isn’t going to go away just like that and also on the flip side the fear of getting caught might in fact discourage the decision making process making the situation much worst so the people will need to take the initiative and lay the foundation that will bring about the required and essential change in the overall mindset of the Indian society. In other words the society of the day needs to get on 2014 bandwidth.

And obviously the government has a very important role to play by working together with the society and facilitating this change by starting with creating incentives within the existing system. For example, if the government comes with an investment or a social investment program then why not also create a provision where up to 10% of the allocated fund could be paid in bonuses to officials in charge of administering and executing that particular program or policy similarly if a government department is announcing a tender then why not create a BONUS pool of 5 % to 10% that could be paid to the department in charge of the particular project or tender irrespective of who wins the tender. This will mostly likely remove the need for companies to submit unrealistic bids in order to simply secure the project by finding a way to bribe the officials. Also the officials will know that irrespective of who wins the tender their bonus is guaranteed. This by no means should be taken as encouraging corruption but in fact these steps could provide the right incentives by taking away the motivation behind corruption and there are a number of practical, simple and innovative steps to create the right incentives. For example, every government secretariat could have a simple fast track service for citizens and people willing to pay higher fees will be able to access that particular service on fast track basis. Some of these incentives are probably already there. Also why not create a donation incentive so if customers are happy with the services provided by the officials in a particular department then they could donate towards the annual bonus fund. A Corruption that is under the carpet can kill any economy and unless we find a way to start paying people fairly we can’t take the moral high ground and expect people not to take bribe as most of them get involved in corruption because of their obligations towards the family and in a way they do have the right to do what is best in the interest of their family. So this is why it is important that we explore all the practical ways to remove the corruption embedded in the system say.

Now with regards to the TAX Code debate well a country where roughly only 4% of the population pays income tax clearly needs to do better and this will not only require the government of the day to make radical changes in the overall tax structure but also the people who are happy take to the streets to show their anger against corruption will need to have a serious look at themselves in the MIRROR and ask themselves what is their own contribution to the country that they claim to love so much. Talk is generally cheap and easy and most of us are good at it. A big economy like India can’t abolish the personal income tax system altogether, it is simply unrealistic and most probably a wrong debate.

Indian Tax system today heavily relies on indirect tax revenues including of VAT, sales tax, excise duties among others to pay the country’s BILLS. And no doubt the system is struggling cause of corruption but this isn’t just an INDIAN phenomena. Having said that it is surely getting entrenched in the DNA of the Indian society and people will need to realise that if you build yourself a US 100 million dollar mansion in a neighbourhood where the rest of them can’t afford even a US $5,000 house then you are making a serious mistake because you may end up having to spend millions on security etc so why not instead help build your immediate neighbourhood and by this I mean building a good road, a good sanitation system, may be a good school , a good medical centre and then build yourself a billion dollar mansion ( if you can afford it ) because in this case the new neighbourhood will be anchored around you and it always be grateful and most likely you will see significant benefits from your investment in the community. And this is not socialism but just smart and sustainable investment.

If you want to change the country then you will most likely have to start with changing yourself, your own family, neighbourhood and the city. So I will encourage the society, the government and the entrepreneurs to take the important first step and in a society where people like to follow and copy others it is highly likely others will follow suit creating a trend. Collaboration can help us climb mountains and help us get to the moon so the various communities will need to come together and work towards making a better India. A crisis also provides opportunity but it is important not to get overwhelmed by the CHAOS because a grinding process isn’t all smooth and beautiful so I believe it is time for the Indian society to look at the big picture knowing well that it has a truly historic opportunity to take the country forward by playing an extremely important role and in the process it could also set up a good example and precedent for similar societies living in the developing world going forward.

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